Predicting the Prognosis Through Analysis of Mortality Risk Factors in Paraquat-Poisoning Patient

Lee,  Jeong Min; Kim,  Gab Teuk

J Korean Soc Emerg Med > Volume 14(2); 2003 > Article

Original Article

Journal of The Korean Society of Emergency Medicine 2003;14(2): 185-191.

Predicting the Prognosis Through Analysis of Mortality Risk Factors in Paraquat-Poisoning Patient

Jeong Min Lee, Gab Teuk Kim

Department of Emergency Medicine, College of Medicine, Dankook University, Cheonan, Korea. gtkim@medigate.net

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE:
Paraquat is a deadly chemical which may cause death in 70~90% of patients even after small ingestion. In this study, the authors gathered initial information which could be obtained from paraquat-poisoning patients, and attempted to identify factors which might influence the prognosis, and used those factors in determining the prognosis.
METHODS:
The authors conducted a retrospective study of 44 patients who had been admitted with paraquat ingestion between January 2000 and December 2001. Based on the initial information obtained in the emergency room, through an analysis of mono-factor studied factors which might influence death, and using the obtained factors, the authors used the discriminant analysis. When new patients occurred, the authors conducted discriminant function found in this study in order to determine prognosis.
RESULTS:
Among the examinations conducted in the emergency room, potassium, BUN, creatinine, HCO3-, proteinuria, glycosuria, urinalysis of paraquat, glucose, PaCO2, pH, blood-paraquat concentration, and O2 saturation were factors which might affect the prognosis for paraquat poisoning.The discriminant functional equation which utilizes these factors is as follows: Z= -5.885 + 0.560A + 0.481B - 0.980C + 0.036D + 1.648E -0.076F- 0.052G - 0.023H + 0.775I + 0.002J + 0.077K +0.239L(A; urine paraquat, B; serum paraquat, C; potassium, D;PaCO2, E; pH, F; HCO3-, G; O2 Saturation, H; BUN, I; creatinine, J; glucose, K; proteinuria, L; glycosuria) This discriminant function for the actual group was 88.6%, which was a relatively high level of discrimination.
CONCLUSION:
The hit ratio of the discriminant function obtained through this study was 88.6%, so it should help in categorizing patients early on and in determining their prognosis.

Key words: Paraquat poisoning, Prognosis