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Journal of The Korean Society of Emergency Medicine 2011;22(1): 37-43. |
| Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre Model for Predicting 1-Month Mortality in Emergency Intensive Care Unit Korean Patients |
| Kyung Su Kim, Gil Joon Suh, Woon Yong Kwon, Young Ho Kwak, Jae Hyuk Lee, Bongkyu Song |
| Department of Emergency Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea. suhgil@snu.ac.kr |
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| ABSTRACT |
PURPOSE:
The performance of the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) model for predicting 1-month mortality was evaluated and compared with performances of APACHE II, adjusted APACHE (adj-APACHE) II, and SAPS II models.
METHODS:
All admissions except those <16-years-of-age (n=7) and with inadequate data (n=10) in our emergency intensive care unit (ICU) during one year (n=661) were retrospectively analyzed. Performance was assessed using Area under curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit. Customization was performed in randomly selected patients (n=324) and performance was evaluated in the remaining patients (n=337).
RESULTS:
Observed 1-month mortality was 25.6% (169/661).
AUCs of ICNARC, APACHE II, adj-APACHE II, and SAPS II were .849, .845, .822, and .859, respectively. AUC of adj-APACHE II was smaller than the others (p<.05). All original models had poor calibrations (p<.05). After customization, AUCs of C-ICNARC, C-APACHE II, C-adjusted APACHE II, and C-SAPS II were .852, .849, .821, and .878, respectively. C-ICNARC and C-adj-APACHE II had fair calibrations (p=.251 and .074), but C-APACHE II and C-SAPS II had poor calibrations (p<.05).
CONCLUSION:
The ICNARC model demonstrates good performance for predicting 1-month mortality in patients of an emergency ICU in Korea. |
| Key words:
Critical Care, Mortality, Outcome Assessment (Health Care), Prognosis, Severity of Illness Index |
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